How are predictions about AI playing out in the jobs market?

How the future of work is being shaped by automation in Australia

For several years, there has been widespread speculation that Artificial Intelligence (AI) is going to create radical change for the global jobs market. In June 2015, one particular story emerged from down under, which proclaimed: “Five million jobs to be lost in 15 years due to new technology, report warns”.

The article, which featured data from CEDA (the Committee of Economic Development of Australia), warned that computerisation and automation could see more than 6 out of 10 jobs in rural and regional Australia vanish.

No doubt, this had the effect of alarming some of the population employed in rural and regional Australia. Some six years on, how are these fears playing out?

Recruiter takeaways: Innovate and help people to upskill

Of course, since then, research has emerged that lets us see how the situation is developing and which provides some takeaways.

• March 2019 – McKinsey Australia estimates up to 6.5 million full-time equivalent positions could be affected, with up to 5 million workers needing to change professions. Disruption by industry could see the loss of 16 percent of education jobs, up to 33 percent of transport jobs; regionally, the impact could vary from losses of 21 percent in city centre professional services roles to over 30 percent of jobs in mining areas.

• March 2020 – Modelling conducted by the Australian Computer Society (ACS) found 2.7 million jobs nationwide could be replaced entirely by 2034 – with male-dominated industries like mining and construction among those most heavily affected. Up to 50 percent of healthcare jobs, female-dominated, could be affected.

• February 2021 – Amazon Web Services commissioned consulting firm AlphaBeta to conduct research which suggested Australia needs 6.5 million extra digital workers by 2025. This identified significant skills gaps.

• The 2015 report looks accurate – The headline news from the ongoing research supports the accuracy of the 2015 report. Even if precise figures vary somewhat, the order of magnitude forms a consistent narrative of the scale of disruption to the Australian job market.

• New jobs won’t be created 1:1 old-for-new – The destruction of some jobs is inevitable, as is the creation of brand new roles. However, this is not on a one-for-one basis – a new job won’t be created for every legacy job that is lost.

• Worker Vs. Jobs: The mismatch – The prediction for Australia’s future workers in the March 2020 ACS report warns there could be structural unemployment for 400,000 people, where they don’t have the skills for the newly created jobs resulting from automation that become available.

• Recruiter opportunities for training – Recruitment businesses should consider how to capitalise on the need to upskill the workforce. There is potential for partnering with training companies and IT companies to find out how better to bring the two together. Tech recruitment innovation could see the development of programs to help develop worker skills in teams, where multiple workers could be placed as contracted units with employers.

RecTech for a rapidly changing global jobs market from ETZ

So, what are the lessons from Australia for the global jobs market? Unlike some developed economies, Australia has had something of an economic boom for almost 30 years. Also, it is somewhat reliant on the mining industry. However, there is certainly a lot for global recruiters to take away from the Australian experience of technology disruption to the wider jobs market.

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To find out more about how we help agencies like yours to adapt to a rapidly changing employment market, call us on 0800 311 2266 or book a demo.